Following up on the January NPD data, analyst Jesse Divnich of the online prediction market simExchange noted that Nintendo's Wii "posted dismal results" for the month. The Wii, which sold 274K units, was the top selling hardware platform in January, but only by 5,000 units over the PS3.

Divnich believes the lowered sales for Wii will persist in February as well. One theory for the January sales dip is that Wii hardware may have been diverted to Japan.

"[The Wii sales] at first glance may indicate a performance issue with its consumer demand that dominated 2007. Examining the forward looking data can explain the story. February's expectations have decreased by 15%, down to 407,000 units since NPD released its data while March's expectations have increased by 3% to 463,000 units. The prediction market is predicting decreased sales to persist through February but to return to normal in March. The market may believe that Nintendo will ensure sufficient supply to support its March North American release of Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Wii), currently forecast to sell 2 million copies in March. This implies a possible explanation for decreased Wii sales in January and February as being Wii hardware was diverted from the United States to support the Japanese release of Smash Bros Brawl," Divnich stated.

Divnich also said the lowered Wii sales may have affected the performance of Super Mario Galaxy, which is something we noted in our original NPD data report. After very strong performances in November and December, Mario, which should be a strong tie-in purchase for new Wii owners, sold just 172K units.

As for the PS3 vs. Xbox 360 battle, Sony is predicted to come out on top yet again in February. simExchange predicts PS3 to sell 289K units compared to 275K for Xbox 360. "Although, we do not know to what extent a hardware shortage played on Xbox 360 sales, it is likely the PS3 is beginning to change the tides on its rival," Divnich said.

The top selling title in February is predicted to be Capcom's Devil May Cry, with 393,000 units selling on Xbox 360 alone.