Nintendo will certainly do well enough with the Wii this holiday season, between the price cut and the release of New Super Mario Bros. Wii and Wii Fit Plus. Despite this, Cowen Group analyst Doug Creutz said [thanks Gamasutra] today that he believes that core games are the best bet for game publishers… but not necessarily core games on the Wii.
Citing a recent holiday survey, Creutz says that Wii owners plan to buy fewer games this holiday season, while PS3 and Xbox 360 owners plan to buy more. While roughly half of consumers with a Wii also own a PS3 and Xbox 360, less than a quarter consider the Wii their primary platform, and valuable core owners who are less likely to trim back their game purchases aren’t looking as much at Wii releases from outside of Nintendo.
"While core gamers who own a Wii own more Wii games on average than casual gamer Wii-owners, the average title ownership spread between the two categories of gamers is much lower than it is for owners of Xbox 360 and PS3 consoles," said Creutz, adding, “We believe that the optics of this hardware cycle have been significantly distorted by the explosive growth of the Wii console."
He noted that while the Wii has driven overall industry growth over the past couple of years, most U.S. publishers did not benefit heavily, and with Wii sales lower in 2009 they’re likely to be hurt even more as a group.
"While we believe the Wii is likely to be a drag on overall software sales through the holiday, the impact should be limited to those publishers which have invested significantly in Wii development, with the biggest negative impact likely to be felt by Electronic Arts, which (unwisely in our view) heavily invested in Wii development for [calendar 2009]," says Creutz.
On the other hand, Creutz sees Sony benefiting the most this holiday season, with a third of PS2 owners looking to upgrade to the PS3, compared to just 19 percent considering a Wii and 9 percent looking at the Xbox 360. He thinks that the new $299 price point combined with its Blu-ray capabilities are drawing more consumers in.
"With the frontline Xbox 360 console (the Elite) also retailing for $299, we believe Sony now has, for the first time, a significant price advantage at retail, particularly in the minds of serious gamers who are more likely to be considering the PS3 vs. the Xbox 360 Elite rather than the $199 Xbox 360 Arcade version," concludes Creutz.
Creutz just reinforces what we’ve said for a while: the Wii core audience is not substantial and the PS3 looks set to do well post price cut.
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