With EA Sports having just released Madden NFL 09, there was some trepidation among investors since soft channel checks indicated unit pre-orders were tracking down about 30 percent. According to UBS Securities' Ben Schachter, however, actual sales have been far better than pre-orders suggested.

Schachter, who noted that the game is always a hugely important release for EA since it represents around 20-25 percent of the publisher's U.S. console/handheld revenues, said, "We estimate that Madden 09 unit sales for day 1 were approximately flat on a y/y basis (including pre-orders), up ~5-10% in dollars on higher ASP."

While EA Sports is sometimes criticized for releasing little more than a roster update on its games rather than offering substantial improvements, the general consensus is that Madden 09 really stepped up its game, and this has helped boost initial sales. "Importantly, EA achieved its goal of improving Madden quality," said Schachter. "We believe that solid avg Metacritic scores of 86 for Madden NFL 09 on next-gen consoles (vs. 81 and 79 for Madden 08 and 07, respectively) were key drivers of the apparent rebound. Notably, EA's 'All Play' sku for the Wii saw the biggest increase y/y, from 76 to 85 for Madden NFL 09."

"Madden performance is the most important near-term catalyst for ERTS, followed by Spore (Sept 7 release). Bottom line, thus far Madden looks to be okay, but just okay. Strong growth in Sports is still a challenge this yr, leading to concerns about how structural the issue is. Additionally, while Sports growth would be encouraging, we note that new EA Games titles and casual games will also be key drivers for the ERTS story heading into the holiday," concluded Schachter, who is maintaining a "Neutral" rating on EA shares and a price target of $52.

Madden 09 Screens

    With a new broadcast presentation and online leagues, plus more than 85 new features and enhancements, Madden NFL 09 is the most authentic and adaptable game in sports videogame history.

    EA

    With a new broadcast presentation and online leagues, plus more than 85 new features and enhancements, Madden NFL 09 is the most authentic and adaptable game in sports videogame history.

    EA

    With a new broadcast presentation and online leagues, plus more than 85 new features and enhancements, Madden NFL 09 is the most authentic and adaptable game in sports videogame history.

    EA

    With a new broadcast presentation and online leagues, plus more than 85 new features and enhancements, Madden NFL 09 is the most authentic and adaptable game in sports videogame history.

    EA

    With a new broadcast presentation and online leagues, plus more than 85 new features and enhancements, Madden NFL 09 is the most authentic and adaptable game in sports videogame history.

    EA

    With a new broadcast presentation and online leagues, plus more than 85 new features and enhancements, Madden NFL 09 is the most authentic and adaptable game in sports videogame history.

    EA

    With a new broadcast presentation and online leagues, plus more than 85 new features and enhancements, Madden NFL 09 is the most authentic and adaptable game in sports videogame history.

    EA

    With a new broadcast presentation and online leagues, plus more than 85 new features and enhancements, Madden NFL 09 is the most authentic and adaptable game in sports videogame history.

    EA

    With a new broadcast presentation and online leagues, plus more than 85 new features and enhancements, Madden NFL 09 is the most authentic and adaptable game in sports videogame history.

    EA

    With a new broadcast presentation and online leagues, plus more than 85 new features and enhancements, Madden NFL 09 is the most authentic and adaptable game in sports videogame history.

    EA