While projections of the future tend to be linear, Kurzweil expressed that this is not really how change occurs. Technology has been accelerating exponentially, but over a short period exponential growth can look linear. As such, if you're creating a game and it takes a few years, technology is going to change in that time, so you have to plan accordingly. Since he sees technology as being so vital to human evolution, he's very interested in games like Spore and how that will turn out. Games will have "taken over the world" by the 2020s, predicted Kurzweil, and will be a driving force in our economy. He reminded attendees that not too many years ago, MMO games would not have been technologically possible, and that now we have millions of people interacting in these lush virtual worlds.
Kurzweil went on and said that reverse engineering of the human brain is happening right now through brain scanning. In 20 years, there will be simulated human intelligence that will help push education forward. All this technology, he described, is being driven by the game world. By 2010, computers as we know them will start to "disappear," and they'll be integrated into items like clothing and eye ware as a way to augment 'real reality.' Kurzweil also restated his theory that by 2029, there will be human level intelligence that will be able to pass the "Turing Test," which involves a verbal conversation between a live person and a robot. If the live person can't discern whether the other being is human or machine, the machine wins the test.
Biological intelligence is a fixed thing, but non-biological intelligence is going to continue to grow, he noted. In a way, Kurzweil sees the expansion of intelligence happening right now, thanks to technology. For example, the Internet is now accessed with a few easy keystrokes, thus expanding and augmenting human intelligence.
He concluded by noting that with these technology increases, expected human lifespans will increase as well. With every year that passes, life expectancy will increase by four months, and then five months, and so on. "The 'Sands of Time' will be running in, not out," said Kurzweil, drawing cheers for his gaming reference.
Additional reporting by James Brightman at GDC






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