Casual Connect: 'Consoles Are Dead,' says St. John
Think consoles will still rule the world 10 years from now? Wild Tangent's Alex St John certainly doesn't think so. He talks about the changing games landscape at Casual Connect.
by N. Evan Van Zelfden on Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Alex St. John's lively and controversial talk at Casual Connect in Seattle today covered a wide swath of predictions and prognostications, centering on the case of why consoles are dead.
Currently in the industry, PCs are thought to be in decline while consoles seem assured, but St. John, chief of Wild Tangent has some inside information – gathered anonymously from his users.
Wild Tangent is the largest privately held game network in the U.S., fourth largest network overall – behind Yahoo Games, EA Games, and Disney – jokes St. John, "I think I'm going to beat them next month."
"We ship on more personal computers than all consoles combined," he says, which starts to explain why St. John can declare that, by 2020, consoles will be extinct, and that 50 percent of all gaming revenue will be driven by media dollars.
"I think you're looking at the last generation of consoles... You don't need a console – consoles are dongles – they prevent piracy."
"All premium games are likely to become persistent microcurrency based MMOGs. The dominant gaming platform is ultimately going to be the PC," he asserts.
"People act like that's an incredibly heretical statement," says St. John, but they forget how fragile the console market is – fragile because it costs billions to make a console.
"I think you're looking at the last generation of consoles." St. John predicts that the Wii, 360, and PS3 will be the last generation of consoles to be considered successful – and that if future generations are pursued, they'll fail.
He says that the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 can't recover their costs, and that consoles are no longer needed to prevent piracy. "You don't need a console – consoles are dongles – they prevent piracy," something that is now accomplished by online games and persistent worlds.
Something that St. John remembers from his time at Microsoft was the complete obsession that Microsoft's chairman Bill Gates had with the living room. But the reason people gathered in the living room, says St. John, is because that's where the screen was. And screens were expensive. But now, screens are no longer expensive. And thus, "the living room doesn't matter anymore."
While everyone has screens, one hurdle that St. John sees has to do with credit cards, and not everyone having them. "Kids don't have credit cards. Credit cards are a bad way of paying for things. The only way a kid can buy a game is to talk mom into filling out a credit card form."
What St. John sees as the model of the future is the one currently employed by iTunes with the sale of cards in stores. "Retailers will have a role in the game industry," he says, "It will just be different."
St. John concludes by saying that one way small developers can make money is to innovate, then sell themselves to giant companies that have to buy or die. "Disney would never have paid $200 million to make a Club Penguin," he says. "But, boy, they paid $700 million like little bitches to buy it."
Latest Article Comments (4)
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adrastia9 on 7/24/2008 11:22 pm
I don't get the whole PC gaming thing. I look at the games and they don't interest me. I don't like MMOs, FPS, RTS and simulations and I don't see much else. Plus it's damned uncomfortable to sit at my computer and play, especially when a game requires a mouse and keyboard, which I am hopeless with. It's just not a fun or comfortable experience. Consoles are made for gaming. Computers are multi-use. Not everyone likes online play and plenty of console gamers are not casual gamers who want to use their Wiis to work out. Those games have a market but it's not to anyone who has any serious interest in games. I won't buy a Wii because I hate the control scheme. I just want to sit on the floor and play with a normal controller. just like I always have. Anyway, I can't see consoles dying. TVs and radios might not be as important anymore with the internet having more to offer entertainment wise but they are still around and will be for a long time. Same with consoles. I think what ruined it though was the "Make it for the masses" mentality. Every damn game has to have a ton of movies and voice overs for every sequence. It's more like an interactive film than a game. By the time you get back to the gameplay there's another long movie sequence on its way. It's getting so overdone that the fun is being sucked out. It's especially bad with RPGs. Games need to go back to their roots and have more play time and less hollywood. If I want to see a movie i'll get a DVD not a game..
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angelgaidin on 7/24/2008 10:56 pm
Those could be great points, if everyone was interesting in playing onine/persistent world games. Also, it's unlikely consoles will give way to PC until it's actually affordable to get a rig that can run games, not to mention the fact that even if you buy a new rig, it's instantly obsolete. Another thing PC games need to get right before they can think of dominating is copy protection. As it stands, most copy protection companies really botch it to begin with, but then put out patches. Sure it gets fixed, but those are things that should be taken care of before release. Really, as it is with any problem in the game industry, it comes from developers having too much pressure/not enough time, and publishers being overly paranoid. Perhaps PCs will take over when developer/publisher relationships streamline, but then again, I find it hard to be tempted to instantly-obsolete, *way* more expensive PCs, when consoles offer cheaper gaming solutions, without becoming obsolete for a few years, at least.
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psycros on 7/24/2008 10:50 am
Thinking further, it dawns me on me that we're seeing the beginnings of a real devolution in the console realm. Once upon a time (like, 10-15 years ago) consoles were strictly for twitchy kids and teenagers. But then the hardware got good enough to handle games with real depth and arcade-or-better graphics. Suddenly you had as many college kids playing Final Fantasy as you had smoking weed, if not more. The levels of "xtremeness" were ramped up with every successive generation of game to keep these 19 and twenty-somethings hooked. PC gaming was pronounced dead more often than rock and roll. But all this time PC gaming was chugging along and constantly refining itself. The FPS's just got more immersive, the RTS's got bigger and bolder, the classic franchises that had stood the test of time not only survived but prospered and we discovered the potent lure of "casual" games. All this despite the very real impact of piracy and the sometimes shaky foundations that comprise Windows. Consoles are now being carried by puzzles, karaoke, bowling, parlor games, workout games - in other words, the stuff of arcades and other social settings, but not the "hard core" games of the previous generation. The best arcade type experiences have always been on consoles..thats why they were first created, after all. But the bulk of my gaming enjoyment has come from the PC and it will likely remain so. Part of the problem stems from the console world's refusal to embrace a superior interface such as the mouse and keyboard, but Nintendo is shaking up that mindset. The next generation of consoles will all have motion control and probably more exotic options as well. There is, however, no logical reason for not supporting the familiar kb/mouse combo, especially if you plan on expanding the online experience. Thats another thing the consoles must do if their to remain relevant to gaming. It wouldn't take a whole lot of creative effort by the PC hardware industry to replace game consoles with an extension of the desktop.
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psycros on 7/24/2008 9:59 am
Usually, St. John is full of it. But every once in a great while he blurts out exactly what many of us are thinking (all us that actually still think, that is). The console games are getting repetitive, stale, non-fun and composed mostly of eye candy. The new Metal Gear is gonna be about 15 minutes of game and 12 hrs of movies from what I hear, and if pre-orders are high, that will be the new normal. Console games are also DAMNED expensive compared to the value of a PC game. The Wii has been a hit simply because it gives younger kids and non-gamers something we haven't seen since the Atari 2600 - simple and engaging gameplay with the bonus of physical immersion. PC gamers don't really get that last part (except for the racing wheel/flight stick crowd), but we can appreciate its power. I will take what Alex said and go a step farther - I think that consoles will have to [b]become[/b] PCs to survive. This won't happen for the simple reason that they'd also have to become universally compatible on some things. Remember when you could buy a home computer game and it had the Atari version of one side of the disk and the C-64 copy on the other? Thats what they'd need.
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