Opinion: The Video Game Arms Race is Upon Us

With Activision and Vivendi Games joining forces, the industry could be in for a big shakeup, as dethroned rival Electronic Arts looks to counter the new publishing superpower.

by James Brightman on Monday, December 03, 2007

Opinion: The Video Game Arms Race is Upon Us

With the mega merger forming Activision Blizzard, there can be no doubt that there are now two veritable superpowers in the worldwide game publishing business. Although Activision has been having a stellar year, and grabbed the number one publisher slot for the first half of 2007, its global scale and resources were still not on par with the juggernaut that is Electronic Arts. That all changed on Sunday morning.

And that very move could potentially set off a wave of consolidation, as EA and Activision Blizzard battle it out. Ironically, EA CEO John Riccitiello just last week commented that the industry is no longer ripe for consolidation. But could he really have been in the dark on the pending Activision Blizzard announcement? He had to have sniffed that one coming, and if so, then perhaps his comments were directed at the industry so as to not show EA's hand before it makes its next big move.

Regardless, EA won't sit idly by while Activision Blizzard leapfrogs them as the number one publisher. Much like the Cold War days when the U.S. and U.S.S.R. were stockpiling weapons, these two superpowers will likely go at it, stockpiling developer talent, studios, technology and more. Except there's nothing cold about this war; EA and Activision will be lobbing bombs back and forth. And in some sense, they already have (Activision buys Bizarre, EA buys BioWare/Pandemic, etc.), but the Vivendi deal raises the stakes and the tension to a new level.

"It wouldn't be all that surprising to see EA merge with Disney's game division, or better still Viacom's MTV Games given the two parties' close relationship with Rock Band."


Who will EA go after to counter Activision Blizzard? Speculation in the major media outlets is already pointing towards Ubisoft. As noted by Reuters, Les Echos newspaper said Vivendi's plan to acquire control of Activision might force EA to raise its 15 percent stake in Ubisoft. And while Ubisoft CEO Yves Guillemot originally said that EA's stock building in Ubisoft was "hostile," in a recent GameDaily BIZ interview he did admit that a merger with another publisher like EA is a "possibility" – even though remaining independent is his first choice.


Ultimately, Vivendi's controlling interest in Activision could be just the beginning of the activity in the larger media sphere. As Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian stated in a recent research note, "...the merger of Activision and Vivendi Games is representative of the growing trend among major media and entertainment companies to gain a more significant stake in the video game industry. ... we believe the merger could potentially spawn other combinations in the industry. More specifically, media and entertainment companies continue to face challenges in their core business, as digital and Internet distribution disrupt traditional business models. As a result, digital media, including video games, are attracting more attention and investment from companies such as Disney, Viacom, Time Warner and Vivendi."

With that in mind, perhaps EA is thinking even larger than Ubisoft. After all, the publisher has said that its goal is to become an entertainment company. It wouldn't be all that surprising to see EA merge with Disney's game division, or better still Viacom's MTV Games given the two parties' close relationship with Rock Band. MTV is already expected to invest "well over $500 million" in the video game sector in the next couple years.

Even without making another move, however, EA remains primed to be very competitive. Activision has nothing even comparable to EA Sports, The Sims will continue to be popular (as will Spore when it arrives), and the BioWare/Pandemic acquisition brought in two of the most talented independent developers in the business. A potential Star Wars MMO from BioWare could be just what's needed to counter World of Warcraft.

That said, don't think that just because Vivendi is acquiring a majority stake in Activision that it's going to take it easy for a while either. Jean-Bernard Levy, Chairman of the Management Board and Chief Executive Officer of Vivendi, has already indicated that the media giant is continuing to look for other acquisition opportunities.

But can EA get to these companies before Activision Blizzard? The race is on.

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