While Nintendo and the Wii have been credited with expanding the gamer audience over the last year and bringing in more casual players, it's actually Microsoft's Xbox 360 that may prevail during this crucial holiday season, according to Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey.
As part of an investor note for Electronic Arts (which is expected to announce its Q2 earnings on November 1), Hickey commented that this holiday may see more of a hardcore focus. "We believe the recent release of killer content (Halo 3 - BioShock), lower hardware price points, and limited Wii (hardware/software) supply could shift market focus from Wii casual to 360 hardcore this holiday," he said.
Ultimately, if there is a general shift towards the hardcore audience, it should help EA, Hickey noted. "A market shift toward core gamer platforms (360/PS3) and a potential PS3 price cut (November) should benefit ERTS this holiday," he said.
Hickey also took the opportunity to weigh in on the recent BioWare/Pandemic acquisition and the MMO market. "We are cautiously optimistic over their recent acquisition of BioWare/Pandemic development studios, although considerably less positive on the Bio-Pan IRR potential despite speculation BioWare's unannounced MMO will be a Star Wars licensed release," he said.
He added, "The MMO segment has received considerable investment after the smashing success of WOW and the subsequent annuity stream it has unleashed. However, aside from international markets, the genre's success domestically has been limited to WOW, in our view."
Hickey also cast some doubt on just how good an MMO from BioWare might be. Although BioWare is an expert in the RPG field, Hickey noted that they have no experience in MMOs. Creating great single-player RPGs and engaging MMOs are two wholly different challenges.






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