Analyst: Wii Shortages Could Last Until 2009

April 25, 2007 | By: James Brightman

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Think getting a Wii will be much easier later this year or in 2008? Think again, says IDC video games analyst Billy Pidgeon, who believes supply won't be ironed out until 2009. Meanwhile, 2007 could actually be "the year of the PS2," according to Michael Pachter.

Commenting to Home Media Magazine on the recent NPD results for the first quarter of 2007, IDC analyst Billy Pidgeon made some interesting remarks about Nintendo's Wii. The Wii sold 259K units in March, but the general consensus seems to be that it would have sold far more if its supply wasn't so badly constrained.

The Wii has definitely been hard to find in stores, as evidenced by the GameStop survey by AG Edwards analyst Bill Kreher. Not a single store out of the 100 surveyed in major metropolitan areas had a Wii in stock. Interestingly, Pidgeon doesn't see the supply and demand balancing out for the Wii until 2009.

"I believe the Wii will continue strong growth although supply continues to be a problem. I'd like to see Wii hardware shipping in larger quantities or mass market consumers may cool on it. Having said that, I don't believe supply will meet demand for the Wii until 2009," he said.

From February to March Wii sales actually dipped 22 percent in the U.S. in part because of the persistent supply problem.

As for the Xbox 360 and PS3, Pidgeon believes the demand for those platforms is somewhat "stagnant." He continued, "Xbox 360 and PS3 need system-selling games ASAP. Halo 3 will help, as will Lair and Heavenly Sword, but that leaves a hole in Q2 which will be filled by Wii, DS and PSP hardware and software. We'll also see more PC and PS2 software picking up the slack."

Ironically, with all the hype surrounding the new systems this year, it's Sony's seemingly ageless PS2 that could see the most success. "It still seems to be the year of the PS2," Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter stated. "Notwithstanding all of the other choices, consumers keep buying PS2 games, with barely any drop off. Virtually all of the year-over-year growth is attributable to a slower than expected decline in PS2 software sales."